HYDROPOLITICS AND STATE SURVIVAL IN POST-CONFLICT LIBYA: A MULTIDIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS OF WATER SCARCITY, OVERNANCE FRAGMENTATION, AND CLIMATE-DRIVEN CONFLICT MULTIPLIERS

Abstract

This article examines the nexus between human security and water in post conflict Libya and examines the challenges of governance, the destabilizing effect of water deprivations for state security, and the potential role of regional cooperation, in particular with Egypt. Libya, which has been experiencing political divisions and water scarcity, is highly dependent on the Great Man-Made River (GMMR) and the ancient fossil water from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) in terms of water management for recovery and sustainability. The paper addresses the water governance shortcomings of Libya, transparency, inefficiency, and insufficient infrastructure, and the implication such shortcomings have for achieving sustainability in water management. It also looks at how water scarcity has fueled social unrest, internal displacement and migration, adding to Libya’s instability. Drought also poses a risk to Libya's water security as climate change can cause less rainfall and higher temperatures, which may desiccate water reserves. The paper also highlights the water diplomacy element of looking at shared management in one of the shared resources the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) that straddles both countries, Libya and Egypt. The paper ends with policy recommendations for improving water governance, increasing climate resilience and fostering regional cooperation, acknowledging the interconnectedness of the water security challenges that are central to Libya's recovery and stability.