ANALYZING THE PERCEPTION OF TERRORISM IN SWAT: APPLICATION OF ORDERED LOGIT REGRESSION

Abstract

This study was carried out with the aim to find out the perception of terrorism and its effect on female education in district Swat of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. For this purpose, 303 respondents were interviewed through simple random sampling technique. The study examines socioeconomic characteristics, perception of terrorism and its effects on female education, using descriptive statistics and ordered logistic regression model for analysis of the data. The results revealed that the current government efforts to protect schools and ensure the safety of students as well as teachers are inadequate in the area. Lack of effective collaboration between the school administrations and law enforcements agencies were among the widespread dissatisfaction by the respondents. Results of the ordered logistic regression model, confirmed that the Institutional damage, fear of terrorist attacks, threats to female education and instability in the community, all of these independent variables have statistically negative significant effect on girls’ enrollment and are the major barriers to girls’ education in the study area. Institutional damage had the most substantial inverse impact and reduces the odds of girls’ enrollment by 51.10 percent. Similarly, fear of terrorists attacks and lack of security measures were also found to adversely affect female’ education by reducing the enrollment likelihood by 22 percent and 37.5 percent respectively. Results of the marginal effects for the logistic regression indicated that the largest negative effect observed for the institutional damage having values of 14.3 percent indicate the probability of girls’ enrollment followed by community instability associated with a 13.6 percent decrease in the probability of girls’ enrollment. While, threats to female education reveal a decrease in the probability of girls’ decrease by 9.2 percent. Based on the findings of the study it is recommended that foster social cohesion and community led initiatives like engagements of local leaders, religious figures to counter extremist ideologies and build reliance against terrorism and provide mental health programs counselling services to train teachers to identify and support students experiencing psychological distress and help them cope with the trauma and stress caused by terrorism.